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COMPUTING MACHINERY AND INTELLIGENCE BY A.
M. TURING
1 The Imitation Game I PROPOSE to consider
the question, 'Can machines think?' This
should begin with definitions of the meaning
of the terms 'machine 'and 'think'. The definitions
might be framed so as to reflect so far as
possible the normal use of the words, but
this attitude is dangerous. If the meaning
of the words 'machine' and 'think 'are to
be found by examining how they are commonly
used it is difficult to escape the conclusion
that the meaning and the answer to the question,
'Can machines think?' is to be sought in
a statistical survey such as a Gallup poll.
But this is absurd. Instead of attempting
such a definition I shall replace the question
by another, which is closely related to it
and is expressed in relatively unambiguous
words.
The new form of the problem can be described'
in terms of a game which we call the 'imitation
game'. It is played with three people, a
man (A), a woman (B), and an interrogator
(C) who may be of either sex. The interrogator
stays in a room apart from the other two.
The object of the game for the interrogator
is to determine which of the other two is
the man and which is the woman. He knows
them by labels X and Y, and at the end of
the game he says either 'X is A and Y is
B' or 'X is B and Y is A'. The interrogator
is allowed to put questions to A and B thus:
C: Will X please tell me the length of his
or her hair? Now suppose X is actually A,
then A must answer. It is A's {p. 434}object
in the game to try and cause C to make the
wrong identification. His answer might therefore
be
'My hair is shingled, and the longest strands,
are about nine inches long.'
In order that tones of voice may not help
the interrogator the answers should be written,
or better still, typewritten. The ideal arrangement
is to have a teleprinter communicating between
the two rooms. Alternatively the question
and answers can be repeated by an intermediary.
The object of the game for the third player
(B) is to help the interrogator. The best
strategy for her is probably to give truthful
answers. She can add such things as 'I am
the woman, don't listen to him!' to her answers,
but it will avail nothing as the man can
make similar remarks.
We now ask the question, 'What will happen
when a machine takes the part of A in this
game?' Will the interrogator decide wrongly
as often when the game is played like this
as he does when the game is played between
a man and a woman? These questions replace
our original, 'Can machines think?'
2 Critique of the New Problem As well as
asking, 'What is the answer to this new form
of the question', one may ask, 'Is this new
question a worthy one to investigate?' This
latter question we investigate without further
ado, thereby cutting short an infinite regress.
The new problem has the advantage of drawing
a fairly sharp line between the physical
and the intellectual capacities of a man.
No engineer or chemist claims to be able
to produce a material which is indistinguishable
from the human skin. It is possible that
at some time this might be done, but even
supposing this invention available we should
feel there was little point in trying to
make a 'thinking machine' more human by dressing
it up in such artificial flesh. The form
in which we have set the problem reflects
this fact in the condition which prevents
the interrogator from seeing or touching
the other competitors, or hearing their voices.
Some other advantages of the proposed criterion
may be shown up by specimen questions and
answers. Thus:
Q: Please write me a sonnet on the subject
of the Forth Bridge. A: Count me out on this
one. I never could write poetry.
Q: Add 34957 to 70764
A: (Pause about 30 seconds and then give
as answer) 105621.
Q: Do you play chess?
A: Yes.
{p. 435} Q: I have K at my K1, and no other
pieces. You have only K at K6 and R at R1.
It is your move. What do you play?
A: (After a pause of 15 seconds) R-R8 mate.
The question and answer method seems to be
suitable for introducing almost any one of
the fields of human endeavour that we wish
to include. We do not wish to penalise the
machine for its inability to shine in beauty
competitions, nor to penalise a man for losing
in a race against an aeroplane. The conditions
of our game make these disabilities irrelevant.
The 'witnesses' can brag, if they consider
it advisable, as much as they please about
their charms, strength or heroism, but the
interrogator cannot demand practical demonstrations.
The game may perhaps be criticised on the
ground that the odds are weighted too heavily
against the machine. If the man were to try
and pretend to be the machine he would clearly
make a very poor showing. He would be given
away at once by slowness and inaccuracy in
arithmetic. May not machines carry out some-thing
which ought to be described as thinking but
which is very different from what a man does?
This objection is a very strong one, but
at least we can say that if, nevertheless,
a machine can be constructed to play the
imitation game satisfactorily, we need not
be troubled by this objection.
It might be urged that when playing the 'imitation
game' the best strategy for the machine may
possibly be something other than imitation
of the behaviour of a man. This may be, but
I think it is unlikely that there is any
great effect of this kind. In any case there
is no intention to investigate here the theory
of the game, and it will be assumed that
the best strategy is to try to provide answers
that would naturally be given by a man.
advertising disclaimer
3 The Machine concerned in the Game The question
which we put in § 1 will not be quite definite
until we have specified what we mean by the
word 'machine'. It is natural that we should
wish to permit every kind of engineering
technique to be used in our machines. We
also wish to allow the possibility than an
engineer or team of engineers may construct
a machine which works, but whose manner of
operation cannot be satisfactorily described
by its constructors because they have applied
a method which is largely experimental. Finally,
we wish to exclude from the machines men
born in the usual manner. It is difficult
to frame the definitions so as to satisfy
these three conditions. One might for instance
insist that the team of {p. 436} engineers
should be all of one sex, but this would
not really be satisfactory, for it is probably
possible to rear a complete individual from
a single cell of the skin (say) of a man.
To do so would be a feat of biological technique
deserving of the very highest praise, but
we would not be inclined to regard it as
a case of 'constructing a thinking machine'.
This prompts us to abandon the requirement
that every kind of technique should be permitted.
We are the more ready to do so in view of
the fact that the present interest in 'thinking
machines' has been aroused by a particular
kind of machine, usually called an 'electronic
computer' or 'digital computer'. Following
this suggestion we only permit digital computers
to take part in our game.
This restriction appears at first sight to
be a very drastic one. I shall attempt to
show that it is not so in reality. To do
this necessitates a short account of the
nature and properties of these computers.
It may also be said that this identification
of machines with digital computers, like
our criterion for 'thinking', will only be
unsatisfactory if (contrary to my belief),
it turns out that digital computers are unable
to give a good showing in the game.
There are already a number of digital computers
in working order, and it may be asked, 'Why
not try the experiment straight away? It
would be easy to satisfy the conditions of
the game. A number of interrogators could
be used, and statistics compiled to show
how often the right identification was given.'
The short answer is that we are not asking
whether all digital computers would do well
in the game nor whether the computers at
present available would do well, but whether
there are imaginable computers which would
do well. But this is only the short answer.
We shall see this question in a different
light later.
advertising disclaimer
4 Digital Computers The idea behind digital
computers may be explained by saying that
these machines are intended to carry out
any operations which could be done by a human
computer. The human computer is supposed
to be following fixed rules; he has no authority
to deviate from them in any detail. We may
suppose that these rules are supplied in
a book, which is altered whenever he is put
on to a new job. He has also an unlimited
supply of paper on which he does his calculations.
He may also do his multiplications and additions
on a 'desk machine', but this is not important.
If we use the above explanation as a definition
we shall be in {p. 437} danger of circularity
of argument. We avoid this by giving an outline
of the means by which the desired effect
is achieved. A digital computer can usually
be regarded as consisting of three parts:
(i) Store.
(ii) Executive unit.
(iii) Control.
The store is a store of information, and
corresponds to the human computer's paper,
whether this is the paper on which he does
his calculations or that on which his book
of rules is printed. In so far as the human
computer does calculations in his head a
part of the store will correspond to his
memory.
The executive unit is the part which carries
out the various individual operations involved
in a calculation. What these individual operations
are will vary from machine to machine. Usually
fairly lengthy operations can be done such
as 'Multiply 3540675445 by 7076345687' but
in some machines only very simple ones such
as 'Write down 0' are possible.
We have mentioned that the 'book of rules'
supplied to the computer is replaced in the
machine by a part of the store. It is then
called the 'table of instructions'. It is
the duty of the control to see that these
instructions are obeyed correctly and in
the right order. The control is so constructed
that this necessarily happens.
The information in the store is usually broken
up into packets of moderately small size.
In one machine, for instance, a packet might
consist of ten decimal digits. Numbers are
assigned to the parts of the store in which
the various packets of information are stored,
in some systematic manner. A typical instruction
might say:
'Add the number stored in position 6809 to
that in 4302 and put the result back into
the latter storage position.' Needless to
say it would not occur in the machine expressed
in English. It would more likely be coded
in a form such as 6809430217. Here 17 says
which of various possible operations is to
be performed on the two numbers. In this
case the operation is that described above,
viz. 'Add the number. . . .' It will be noticed
that the instruction takes up 10 digits and
so forms one packet of information, very
conveniently. The control will normally take
the instructions to be obeyed in the order
of the positions in which they are stored,
but occasionally an instruction such as
{p. 438} 'Now obey the instruction stored
in position 5606, and continue from there'
may be encountered, or again
'If position 4505 contains 0 obey next the
instruction stored in 6707, otherwise continue
straight on.'
Instructions of these latter types are very
important because they make it possible for
a sequence of operations to be repeated over
and over again until some condition is fulfilled,
but in doing so to obey, not fresh instructions
on each repetition, but the same ones over
and over again. To take a domestic analogy:
suppose Mother wants Tommy to call at the
cobbler's every morning on his way to school
to see if her shoes are done, she can ask
him afresh every morning. Alternatively she
can stick up a notice once and for all in
the hall which he will see when he leaves
for school and which tells him to call for
the shoes, and also to destroy the notice
when he comes back if he has the shoes with
him.
The reader must accept it as a fact that
digital computers can be constructed, and
indeed have been constructed, according to
the principles we have described, and that
they can in fact mimic the actions of a human
computer very closely.
The book of rules which we have described
our human computer as using is of course
a convenient fiction. Actual human computers
really remember what they have got to do.
If one wants to make a machine mimic the
behaviour of the human computer in some complex
operation one has to ask him how it is done,
and then translate the answer into the form
of an instruction table. Constructing instruction
tables is usually described as 'programming'.
To 'programme a machine to carry out the
operation A' means to put the appropriate
instruction table into the machine so that
it will do A.
An interesting variant on the idea of a digital
computer is a 'digital computer with a random
element'. These have instructions involving
the throwing of a die or some equivalent
electronic process; one such instruction
might for instance be, 'Throw the die and
put the resulting number into store 1000'.
Sometimes such a machine is described as
having free will (though I would not use
this phrase myself). It is not normally possible
to determine from observing a machine whether
it has a random element, for a similar effect
can be produced by such devices as making
the choices depend on the digits of the decimal
for pi.
Most actual digital computers have only a
finite store. There is no theoretical difficulty
in the idea of a computer with an unlimited
store. Of course only a finite part can have
been used at any one time. Likewise only
a finite amount can have been {p. 439} constructed,
but we can imagine more and more being added
as required. Such computers have special
theoretical interest and will be called infinitive
capacity computers.
The idea of a digital computer is an old
one. Charles Babbage, Lucasian Professor
of Mathematics at Cambridge from 1828 to
1839, planned such a machine, called the
Analytical Engine, but it was never completed.
Although Babbage had all the essential ideas,
his machine was not at that time such a very
attractive prospect. The speed which would
have been available would be definitely faster
than a human computer but something like
100 times slower than the Manchester machine,
itself one of the slower of the modern machines.
The storage was to be purely mechanical,
using wheels and cards.
The fact that Babbage's Analytical Engine
was to be entirely mechanical will help us
to rid ourselves of a superstition. Importance
is often attached to the fact that modern
digital computers are electrical, and that
the nervous system also is electrical. Since
Babbage's machine was not electrical, and
since all digital computers are in a sense
equivalent, we see that this use of electricity
cannot be of theoretical importance. Of course
electricity usually comes in where fast signalling
is concerned, so that it is not surprising
that we find it in both these connections.
In the nervous system chemical phenomena
are at least as important as electrical.
In certain computers the storage system is
mainly acoustic. The feature of using electricity
is thus seen to be only a very superficial
similarity. If we wish to find such similarities
we should look rather for mathematical analogies
of function.
5 Universality of Digital Computers The digital
computers considered in the last section
may be classified amongst the 'discrete state
machines' these are the machines which move
by sudden jumps or clicks from one quite
definite state to another. These states are
sufficiently different for the possibility
of confusion between them to be ignored.
Strictly speaking there are no such machines.
Everything really moves continuously. But
there are many kinds of machine, which can
profitably be thought of as being discrete
state machines. For instance in considering
the switches for a lighting system it is
a convenient fiction that each switch must
be definitely on or definitely off. There
must be intermediate positions, but for most
purposes we can forget about them. As an
example of a discrete state machine we might
consider a wheel which clicks {p. 440} round
through 120° once a second, but may be stopped
by a lever which can be operated from outside;
in addition a lamp is to light in one of
the positions of the wheel. This machine
could be described abstractly as follows.
The internal state of the machine (which
is described by the position of the wheel)
may be q1, q2 or q3. There is an input signal
i0 or i1
(position of lever). The internal state at
any moment is determined by the last state
and input signal according to the table
Last State q1 … q2… q3 i0 q2… q3… q1 Input
. i1 q1 … q2… q3
The output signals, the only externally visible
indication of the internal state (the light),
are described by the table
State q1 … q2… q3 Output o0 … o0… o1
This example is typical of discrete state
machines. They can be described by such tables
provided they have only a finite number of
possible states.
It will seem that given the initial state
of the machine and the input signals it is
always possible to predict all future states.
This is reminiscent of Laplace's view that
from the complete state of the universe at
one moment of time, as described by the positions
and velocities of all particles, it should
be possible to predict all future states.
The prediction which we are considering is,
however, rather nearer to practicability
than that considered by Laplace. The system
of the 'universe as a whole' is such that
quite small errors in the initial conditions
can have an overwhelming effect at a later
time. The displacement of a single electron
by a billionth of a centimetre at one moment
might make the difference between a man being
killed by an avalanche a year later, or escaping.
It is an essential property of the mechanical
systems which we have called 'discrete state
machines' that this phenomenon does not occur.
Even when we consider the actual physical
machines instead of the idealised machines,
reasonably accurate knowledge of the state
at one moment yields reasonably accurate
knowledge any number of steps later.
{p. 441} As we have mentioned, digital computers
fall within the class of discrete state machines.
But the number of states of which such a
machine is capable is usually enormously
large. For instance, the number for the machine
now working at Manchester it about 2165,000,
i. e. about 1050,000. Compare this with our
example of the clicking wheel described above,
which had three states. It is not difficult
to see why the number of states should be
so immense. The computer includes a store
corresponding to the paper used by a human
computer. It must be possible to write into
the store any one of the combinations of
symbols which might have been written on
the paper. For simplicity suppose that only
digits from 0 to 9 are used as symbols. Variations
in handwriting are ignored. Suppose the computer
is allowed 100 sheets of paper each containing
50 lines each with room for 30 digits. Then
the number of states is 10100x50x30, i. e.
10150,000. This is about the number of states
of three Manchester machines put together.
The logarithm to the base two of the number
of states is usually called the 'storage
capacity' of the machine. Thus the Manchester
machine has a storage capacity of about 165,000
and the wheel machine of our example about
1·6. If two machines are put together their
capacities must be added to obtain the capacity
of the resultant machine. This leads to the
possibility of statements such as 'The Manchester
machine contains 64 magnetic tracks each
with a capacity of 2560, eight electronic
tubes with a capacity of 1280. Miscellaneous
storage amounts to about 300 making a total
of 174,380.'
Given the table corresponding to a discrete
state machine it is possible to predict what
it will do. There is no reason why this calculation
should not be carried out by means of a digital
computer. Provided it could be carried out
sufficiently quickly the digital computer
could mimic the behaviour of any discrete
state machine. The imitation game could then
be played with the machine in question (as
B) and the mimicking digital computer (as
A) and the interrogator would be unable to
distinguish them. Of course the digital computer
must have an adequate storage capacity as
well as working sufficiently fast. Moreover,
it must be programmed afresh for each new
machine which it is desired to mimic.
This special property of digital computers,
that they can mimic any discrete state machine,
is described by saying that they are universal
machines. The existence of machines with
this property has the important consequence
that, considerations of speed apart, it is
unnecessary to design various new machines
to do various computing processes. They can
all be {p. 442} done with one digital computer,
suitably programmed for each case. It will
be seen that as a consequence of this all
digital computers are in a sense equivalent.
We may now consider again the point raised
at the end of §3. It was suggested tentatively
that the question, 'Can machines think?'
should be replaced by 'Are there imaginable
digital computers which would do well in
the imitation game?' If we wish we can make
this superficially more general and ask 'Are
there discrete state machines which would
do well?' But in view of the universality
property we see that either of these questions
is equivalent to this, 'Let us fix our attention
on one particular digital computer C. Is
it true that by modifying this computer to
have an adequate storage, suitably increasing
its speed of action, and providing it with
an appropriate programme, C can be made to
play satisfactorily the part of A in the
imitation game, the part of B being taken
by a man?'
6 Contrary Views on the Main Question We
may now consider the ground to have been
cleared and we are ready to proceed to the
debate on our question, 'Can machines think?'
and the variant of it quoted at the end of
the last section. We cannot altogether abandon
the original form of the problem, for opinions
will differ as to the appropriateness of
the substitution and we must at least listen
to what has to be said in this connection.
It will simplify matters for the reader if
I explain first my own beliefs in the matter.
Consider first the more accurate form of
the question. I believe that in about fifty
years time it will be possible to programme
computers with a storage capacity of about
109 to make them play the imitation game
so well that an average interrogator will
not have more than 70 per cent chance of
making the right identification after five
minutes of questioning. The original question,
'Can machines think?' I believe to be too
meaningless to deserve discussion. Nevertheless
I believe that at the end of the century
the use of words and general educated opinion
will have altered so much that one will be
able to speak of machines thinking without
expecting to be contradicted. I believe further
that no useful purpose is served by concealing
these beliefs. The popular view that scientists
proceed inexorably from well-established
fact to well-established fact, never being
influenced by any unproved conjecture, is
quite mistaken. Provided it is made clear
which are proved facts and which are conjectures,
no harm can result. Conjectures are of great
importance since they suggest useful lines
of research.
{p. 443} I now proceed to consider opinions
opposed to my own.
(1) The Theological Objection Thinking is
a function of man's immortal soul. God has
given an immortal soul to every man and woman,
but not to any other animal or to machines.
Hence no animal or machine can think.
I am unable to accept any part of this, but
will attempt to reply in theological terms.
I should find the argument more convincing
if animals were classed with men, for there
is a greater difference, to my mind, between
the typical animate and the inanimate than
there is between man and the other animals.
The arbitrary character of the orthodox view
becomes clearer if we consider how it might
appear to a member of some other religious
community. How do Christians regard the Moslem
view that women have no souls? But let us
leave this point aside and return to the
main argument. It appears to me that the
argument quoted above implies a serious restriction
of the omnipotence of the Almighty. It is
admitted that there are certain things that
He cannot do such as making one equal to
two(1), but should we not believe that He
has freedom to confer a soul on an elephant
if He sees fit? We might expect that He would
only exercise this power in conjunction with
a mutation which provided the elephant with
an appropriately improved brain to minister
to the needs of this soul. An argument of
exactly similar form may be made for the
case of machines. It may seem different because
it is more difficult to "swallow".
But this really only means that we think
it would be less likely that He would consider
the circumstances suitable for conferring
a soul. The circumstances in question are
discussed in the rest of this paper. In attempting
to construct such machines we should not
be irreverently usurping His power of creating
souls, any more than we are in the procreation
of children: rather we are, in either case,
instruments of His will providing mansions
for the souls that He creates.
However, this is mere speculation. I am not
very impressed with theological arguments
whatever they may be used to support. Such
arguments have often been found unsatisfactory
in the past. In the time of Galileo it was
argued that the texts, "And the sun
stood still . . . and hasted not to go down
about a whole day" (Joshua x. 13) and
"He laid the foundations of the earth,
{p. 444} that it should not move at any time"
(Psalm cv. 5) were an adequate refutation
of the Copernican theory. With our present
knowledge such an argument appears futile.
When that knowledge was not available it
made a quite different impression.
(2) The 'Heads in the Sand' Objection "The
consequences of machines thinking would be
too dreadful. Let us hope and believe that
they cannot do so."
This argument is seldom expressed quite so
openly as in the form above. But it affects
most of us who think about it at all. We
like to believe that Man is in some subtle
way superior to the rest of creation. It
is best if be can be shown to be necessarily
superior, for then there is no danger of
him losing his commanding position. The popularity
of the theological argument is clearly connected
with this feeling. It is likely to be quite
strong in intellectual people, since they
value the power of thinking more highly than
others, and are more inclined to base their
belief in the superiority of Man on this
power.
I do not think that this argument is sufficiently
substantial to require refutation. Consolation
would be more appropriate: perhaps this should
be sought in the transmigration of souls.
(3) The Mathematical Objection There are
a number of results of mathematical logic
which can be used to show that there are
limitations to the powers of discrete-state
machines. The best known of these results
is known as Gödel's theorem(2),and shows
that in any sufficiently powerful logical
system statements can be formulated which
can neither be proved nor disproved within
the system, unless possibly the system itself
is inconsistent. There are other, in some
respects similar, results due to Church,
Kleene, Rosser, and Turing. The latter result
is the most convenient to consider, since
it refers directly to machines, whereas the
others can only be used in a comparatively
indirect argument: for instance if Gödel's
theorem is to be used we need in addition
to have some means of describing logical
systems in terms of machines, and machines
in terms of logical systems. The result in
question refers to a type of machine which
is essentially a digital computer with an
infinite capacity. It states that there are
certain things that such a machine cannot
do. If it is rigged up to give answers to
questions as in the imitation game, there
will be some questions to which it will either
give a wrong answer, or fail to give an answer
at all however much time is allowed for a
reply. There may, of course, be many such
questions, and questions which cannot be
answered by one machine may be satisfactorily
{p. 445} answered by another. We are of course
supposing for the present that the questions
are of the kind to which an answer 'Yes'
or 'No' is appropriate, rather than questions
such as 'What do you think of Picasso?' The
questions that we know the machines must
fail on are of this type, "Consider
the machine specified as follows. . . . Will
this machine ever answer 'Yes' to any question?"
The dots are to be replaced by a description
of some machine in a standard form, which
could be something like that used in § 5.
When the machine described bears a certain
comparatively simple relation to the machine
which is under interrogation, it can be shown
that the answer is either wrong or not forthcoming.
This is the mathematical result: it is argued
that it proves a disability of machines to
which the human intellect is not subject.
The short answer to this argument is that
although it is established that there are
limitations to the powers of any particular
machine, it has only been stated, without
any sort of proof, that no such limitations
apply to the human intellect. But I do not
think this view can be dismissed quite so
lightly. Whenever one of these machines is
asked the appropriate critical question,
and gives a definite answer, we know that
this answer must be wrong, and this gives
us a certain feeling of superiority. Is this
feeling illusory? It is no doubt quite genuine,
but I do not think too much importance should
be attached to it. We too often give wrong
answers to questions ourselves to be justified
in being very pleased at such evidence of
fallibility on the part of the machines.
Further, our superiority can only be felt
on such an occasion in relation to the one
machine over which we have scored our petty
triumph. There w6uld be no question of triumphing
simultaneously over all machines. In short,
then, there might be men cleverer than any
given machine, but then again there might
be other machines cleverer again, and so
on.
Those who hold to the mathematical argument
would, I think, mostly be willing to accept
the imitation game as a basis for discussion.
Those who believe in the two previous objections
would probably not be interested in any criteria.
(4) The Argument from Consciousness This
argument is very well expressed in Professor
Jefferson's Lister Oration for 1949, from
which I quote.
"Not until a machine can write a Bonnet
or compose a concerto because of thoughts
and emotions felt, and not by the chance
fall of symbols, could we agree that machine
equals brain-that is, not only write it but
know that it had written it. No mechanism
could feel (and not merely {p. 446} artificially
signal, an easy contrivance) pleasure at
its successes, grief when its valves fuse,
be warmed by flattery, be made miserable
by its mistakes, be charmed by sex, be angry
or depressed when it cannot get what it wants."
This argument appears to be a denial of the
validity of our test. According to the most
extreme form of this view the only way by
which one could be sure that a machine thinks
is to be the machine and to feel oneself
thinking. One could then describe these feelings
to the world, but of course no one would
be justified in taking any notice. Likewise
according to this view the only way to know
that a man thinks is to be that particular
man. It is in fact the solipsist point of
view. It may be the most logical view to
hold but it makes communication of ideas
difficult. A is liable to believe 'A thinks
but B does not' whilst B believes 'B thinks
but A does not'. Instead of arguing continually
over this point it is usual to have the polite
convention that everyone thinks.
I am sure that Professor Jefferson does not
wish to adopt the extreme and solipsist point
of view. Probably he would be quite willing
to accept the imitation game as a test. The
game (with the player B omitted) is frequently
used in practice under the name of viva voce
to discover whether some one really understands
something or has 'learnt it parrot fashion'.
Let us listen in to a part of such a viva
voce:
Interrogator: In the first line of your sonnet
which reads 'Shall I compare thee to a summer's
day', would not 'a spring day' do as well
or better? Witness: It wouldn't scan.
Interrogator: How about 'a winter's day'
That would scan all right.
Witness: Yes, but nobody wants to be compared
to a winter's day.
Interrogator: Would you say Mr. Pickwick
reminded you of Christmas?
Witness: In a way.
Interrogator: Yet Christmas is a winter's
day, and I do not think Mr. Pickwick would
mind the comparison.
Witness: I don't think you're serious. By
a winter's day one means a typical winter's
day, rather than a special one like Christmas.
And so on. What would Professor Jefferson
say if the sonnet-writing machine was able
to answer like this in the viva voce? I do
not know whether he would regard the machine
as 'merely {p. 447} artificially signalling'
these answers, but if the answers were as
satisfactory and sustained as in the above
passage I do not think he would describe
it as 'an easy contrivance'. This phrase
is, I think, intended to cover such devices
as the inclusion in the machine of a record
of someone reading a sonnet, with appropriate
switching to turn it on from time to time.
In short then, I think that most of those
who support the argument from consciousness
could be persuaded to abandon it rather than
be forced into the solipsist position. They
will then probably be willing to accept our
test.
I do not wish to give the impression that
I think there is no mystery about consciousness.
There is, for instance, something of a paradox
connected with any attempt to localise it.
But I do not think these mysteries necessarily
need to be solved before we can answer the
question with which we are concerned in this
paper.
(5) Arguments from Various Disabilities These
arguments take the form, "I grant you
that you can make machines do all the things
you have mentioned but you will never be
able to make one to do X". Numerous
features X are suggested in this connection.
I offer a selection:
Be kind, resourceful, beautiful, friendly
(p. 448), have initiative, have a sense of
humour, tell right from wrong, make mistakes
(p. 448), fall in love, enjoy strawberries
and cream (p. 448), make some one fall in
love with it, learn from experience (pp.
456 f.), use words properly, be the subject
of its own thought (p. 449), have as much
diversity of behaviour as a man, do something
really new (p. 450). (Some of these disabilities
are given special consideration as indicated
by the page numbers.)
No support is usually offered for these statements.
I believe they are mostly founded on the
principle of scientific induction. A man
has seen thousands of machines in his lifetime.
From what he sees of them he draws a number
of general conclusions. They are ugly, each
is designed for a very limited purpose, when
required for a minutely different purpose
they are useless, the variety of behaviour
of any one of them is very small, etc., etc.
Naturally he concludes that these are necessary
properties of machines in general. Many of
these limitations are associated with the
very small storage capacity of most machines.
(I am assuming that the idea of storage capacity
is extended in some way to cover machines
other than discrete-state machines. {p. 448}
The exact definition does not matter as no
mathematical accuracy is claimed in the present
discussion.) A few years ago, when very little
had been heard of digital computers, it was
possible to elicit much incredulity concerning
them, if one mentioned their properties without
describing their construction. That was presumably
due to a similar application of the principle
of scientific induction. These applications
of the principle are of course largely unconscious.
When a burnt child fears the fire and shows
that he fears it by avoiding it, I should
say that he was applying scientific induction.
(I could of course also describe his behaviour
in many other ways.) The works and customs
of mankind do not seem to be very suitable
material to which to apply scientific induction.
A very large part of space-time must be investigated,
if reliable results are to be obtained. Otherwise
we may (as most English children do) decide
that everybody speaks English, and that it
is silly to learn French.
There are, however, special remarks to be
made about many of the disabilities that
have been mentioned. The inability to enjoy
strawberries and cream may have struck the
reader as frivolous. Possibly a machine might
be made to enjoy this delicious dish, but
any attempt to make one do so would be idiotic.
What is important about this disability is
that it contributes to some of the other
disabilities, e. g. to the difficulty of
the same kind of friendliness occurring between
man and machine as between white man and
white man, or between black man and black
man.
The claim that "machines cannot make
mistakes" seems a curious one. One is
tempted to retort, "Are they any the
worse for that?" But let us adopt a
more sympathetic attitude, and try to see
what is really meant. I think this criticism
can be explained in terms of the imitation
game. It is claimed that the interrogator
could distinguish the machine from the man
simply by setting them a number of problems
in arithmetic. The machine would be unmasked
because of its deadly accuracy. The reply
to this is simple. The machine (programmed
for playing the game) would not attempt to
give the right answers to the arithmetic
problems. It would deliberately introduce
mistakes in a manner calculated to confuse
the interrogator. A mechanical fault would
probably show itself through an unsuitable
decision as to what sort of a mistake to
make in the arithmetic. Even this interpretation
of the criticism is not sufficiently sympathetic.
But we cannot afford the space to go into
it much further. It seems to me that this
criticism depends {p. 449} on a confusion
between two kinds of mistake. We may call
them 'errors of functioning' and 'errors
of conclusion'. Errors of functioning are
due to some mechanical or electrical fault
which causes the machine to behave otherwise
than it was designed to do. In philosophical
discussions one likes to ignore the possibility
of such errors; one is therefore discussing
'abstract machines'. These abstract machines
are mathematical fictions rather than physical
objects. By definition they are incapable
of errors of functioning. In this sense we
can truly say that 'machines can never make
mistakes'. Errors of conclusion can only
arise when some meaning is attached to the
output signals from the machine. The machine
might, for instance, type out mathematical
equations, or sentences in English. When
a false proposition is typed we say that
the machine has committed an error of conclusion.
There is clearly no reason at all for saying
that a machine cannot make this kind of mistake.
It might do nothing but type out repeatedly
'0=1'. To take a less perverse example, it
might have some method for drawing conclusions
by scientific induction. We must expect such
a method to lead occasionally to erroneous
results.
The claim that a machine cannot be the subject
of its own thought can of course only be
answered if it can be shown that the machine
has some thought with some subject matter.
Nevertheless, 'the subject matter of a machine's
operations' does seem to mean something,
at least to the people who deal with it.
If, for instance, the machine was trying
to find a solution of the equation x2 - 40x
- 11=0 one would be tempted to describe this
equation as part of the machine's subject
matter at that moment. In this sort of sense
a machine undoubtedly can be its own subject
matter. It may be used to help in making
up its own programmes, or to predict the
effect of alterations in its own structure.
By observing the results of its own behaviour
it can modify its own programmes so as to
achieve some purpose more effectively. These
are possibilities of the near future, rather
than Utopian dreams.
The criticism that a machine cannot have
much diversity of behaviour is just a way
of saying that it cannot have much storage
capacity. Until fairly recently a storage
capacity of even a thousand digits was very
rare.
The criticisms that we are considering here
are often disguised forms of the argument
from consciousness. Usually if one maintains
that a machine can do one of these things,
and describes the kind of method that the
machine could use, one will not make {p.
450} much of an impression. It is thought
that the method (whatever it may be, for
it must be mechanical) is really rather base.
Compare the parenthesis in Jefferson's statement
quoted on p. 21.
(6) Lady Lovelace's Objection Our most detailed
information of Babbage's Analytical Engine
comes from a memoir by Lady Lovelace. In
it she states, "The Analytical Engine
has no pretensions to originate anything.
It can do whatever we know how to order it
to perform" (her italics). This statement
is quoted by Hartree (p. 70) who adds: "This
does not imply that it may not be possible
to construct electronic equipment which will
'think for itself', or in which, in biological
terms, one could set up a conditioned reflex,
which would serve as a basis for 'learning'.
Whether this is possible in principle or
not is a stimulating and exciting question,
suggested by some of these recent developments.
But it did not seem that the machines constructed
or projected at the time had this property."
I am in thorough agreement with Hartree over
this. It will be noticed that he does not
assert that the machines in question had
not got the property, but rather that the
evidence available to Lady Lovelace did not
encourage her to believe that they had it.
It is quite possible that the machines in
question had in a sense got this property.
For suppose that some discrete-state machine
has the property. The Analytical Engine was
a universal digital computer, so that, if
its storage capacity and speed were adequate,
it could by suitable programming be made
to mimic the machine in question. Probably
this argument did not occur to the Countess
or to Babbage. In any case there was no obligation
on them to claim all that could be claimed.
This whole question will be considered again
under the heading of learning machines.
A variant of Lady Lovelace's objection states
that a machine can 'never do anything really
new'. This may be parried for a moment with
the saw, 'There is nothing new under the
sun'. Who can be certain that 'original work'
that he has done was not simply the growth
of the seed planted in him by teaching, or
the effect of following well-known general
principles. A better variant of the objection
says that a machine can never 'take us by
surprise'. This statement is a more direct
challenge and can be met directly. Machines
take me by surprise with great frequency.
This is largely because I do not do sufficient
calculation to decide what to expect them
to do, or rather because, although I do a
calculation, I do it in a hurried, slipshod
fashion, taking risks. Perhaps I say to myself,
'I suppose the voltage here ought to be the
same as there: anyway let's assume it is'.
{p. 451} Naturally I am often wrong, and
the result is a surprise for me for by the
time the experiment is done these assumptions
have been forgotten. These admissions lay
me open to lectures on the subject of my
vicious ways, but do not throw any doubt
on my credibility when I testify to the surprises
I experience.
I do not expect this reply to silence my
critic. He will probably say that such surprises
are due to some creative mental act on my
part, and reflect no credit on the machine.
This leads us back to the argument from consciousness,
and far from the idea of surprise. It is
a line of argument we must consider closed,
but it is perhaps worth remarking that the
appreciation of something as surprising requires
as much of a 'creative mental act' whether
the surprising event originates from a man,
a book, a machine or anything else.
The view that machines cannot give rise to
surprises is due, I believe, to a fallacy
to which philosophers and mathematicians
are particularly subject. This is the assumption
that as soon as a fact is presented to a
mind all consequences of that fact spring
into the mind simultaneously with it. It
is a very useful assumption under many circumstances,
but one too easily forgets that it is false.
A natural consequence of doing so is that
one then assumes that there is no virtue
in the mere working out of consequences from
data and general principles.
(7) Argument from Continuity in the Nervous
System The nervous system is certainly not
a discrete-state machine. A small error in
the information about the size of a nervous
impulse impinging on a neuron, may make a
large difference to the size of the outgoing
impulse. It may be argued that, this being
so, one cannot expect to be able to mimic
the behaviour of the nervous system with
a discrete-state system.
It is true that a discrete-state machine
must be different from a continuous machine.
But if we adhere to the conditions of the
imitation game, the interrogator will not
be able to take any advantage of this difference.
The situation can be made clearer if we consider
some other simpler continuous machine. A
differential analyser will do very well.
(A differential analyser is a certain kind
of machine not of the discrete-state type
used for some kinds of calculation.) Some
of these provide their answers in a typed
form, and so are suitable for taking part
in the game. It would not be possible for
a digital computer to predict exactly hat
answers the differential analyser would give
to a problem, but it would be quite capable
of giving the right sort of answer. For instance,
if asked to give the value of pi (actually
about 3·1416) it would be reasonable {p.
452} to choose at random between the values
3·12, 3·13, 3·14, 3·15, 3·16 with the probabilities
of 0·05, 0·15, 0·55, 0·19, 0·06 (say). Under
these circumstances it would be very difficult
for the interrogator to distinguish the differential
analyser from the digital computer.
(8) The Argument from Informality of Behaviour
It is not possible to produce a set of rules
purporting to describe what a man should
do in every conceivable set of circumstances.
One might for instance have a rule that one
is to stop when one sees a red traffic light,
and to go if one sees a green one, but what
if by some fault both appear together? One
may perhaps decide that it is safest to stop.
But some further difficulty may well arise
from this decision later. To attempt to provide
rules of conduct to cover every eventuality,
even those arising from traffic lights, appears
to be impossible. With all this I agree.
From this it is argued that we cannot be
machines. I shall try to reproduce the argument,
but I fear I shall hardly do it justice.
It seems to run something like this. 'If
each man had a definite set of rules of conduct
by which he regulated his life he would be
no better than a machine. But there are no
such rules, so men cannot be machines.' The
undistributed middle is glaring. I do not
think the argument is ever put quite like
this, but I believe this is the argument
used nevertheless. There may however be a
certain confusion between 'rules of conduct'
and 'laws of behaviour' to cloud the issue.
By 'rules of conduct' I mean precepts such
as 'Stop if you see red lights', on which
one can act, and of which one can be conscious.
By 'laws of behaviour' I mean laws of nature
as applied to a man's body such as 'if you
pinch him he will squeak'. If we substitute
'laws of behaviour which regulate his life'
for 'laws of conduct by which he regulates
his life' in the argument quoted the undistributed
middle is no longer insuperable. For we believe
that it is not only true that being regulated
by laws of behaviour implies being some sort
of machine (though not necessarily a discrete-state
machine), but that conversely being such
a machine implies being regulated by such
laws. However, we cannot so easily convince
ourselves of the absence of complete laws
of behaviour as of complete rules of conduct.
The only way we know of for finding such
laws is scientific observation, and we certainly
know of no circumstances under which we could
say, "We have searched enough. There
are no such laws."
We can demonstrate more forcibly that any
such statement would be unjustified. For
suppose we could be sure of finding {p. 453}
such laws if they existed. Then given a discrete-state
machine it should certainly be possible to
discover by observation sufficient about
it to predict its future behaviour, and this
within a reasonable time, say a thousand
years. But this does not seem to be the case.
I have set up on the Manchester computer
a small programme using only 1000 units of
storage, whereby the machine supplied with
one sixteen figure number replies with another
within two seconds. I would defy anyone to
learn from these replies sufficient about
the programme to be able to predict any replies
to untried values.
(9) The Argument from Extra-Sensory Perception
I assume that the reader is familiar with
the idea of extra-sensory perception, and
the meaning of the four items of it, viz.
telepathy, clairvoyance, precognition and
psycho-kinesis. These disturbing phenomena
seem to deny all our usual scientific ideas.
How we should like to discredit them! Unfortunately
the statistical evidence, at least for telepathy,
is overwhelming. It is very difficult to
rearrange one's ideas so as to fit these
new facts in. Once one has accepted them
it does not seem a very big step to believe
in ghosts and bogies. The idea that our bodies
move simply according to the known laws of
physics, together with some others not yet
discovered but somewhat similar, would be
one of the first to go.
This argument is to my mind quite a strong
one. One can say in reply that many scientific
theories seem to remain workable in practice,
in spite of clashing with E. S. P.; that
in fact one can get along very nicely if
one forgets about it. This is rather cold
comfort, and one fears that thinking is just
the kind of phenomenon where E. S. P. may
be especially relevant.
A more specific argument based on E. S. P.
might run as follows:
"Let us play the imitation game, using
as witnesses a man who is good as a telepathic
receiver, and a digital computer. The interrogator
can ask such questions as 'What suit does
the card in my right hand belong to?' The
man by telepathy or clairvoyance gives the
right answer 130 times out of 400 cards.
The machine can only guess at random, and
perhaps gets 104 right, so the interrogator
makes the right identification." There
is an interesting possibility which opens
here. Suppose the digital computer contains
a random number generator. Then it will be
natural to use this to decide what answer
to give. But then the random number generator
will be subject to the psycho-kinetic powers
of the interrogator. Perhaps this psycho-kinesis
might cause the machine to guess right more
often than would be expected on a probability
calculation, so that the interrogator {p.
454} might still be unable to make the right
identification. On the other hand, he might
be able to guess right without any questioning,
by clairvoyance. With E. S. P. anything may
happen.
If telepathy is admitted it will be necessary
to tighten our test up. The situation could
be regarded as analogous to that which would
occur if the interrogator were talking to
himself and one of the competitors was listening
with his ear to the wall. To put the competitors
into a 'telepathy-proof room' would satisfy
all requirements.
7 Learning Machines The reader will have
anticipated that I have no very convincing
arguments of a positive nature to support
my views. If I had I should not have taken
such pains to point out the fallacies in
contrary views. Such evidence as I have I
shall now give.
Let us return for a moment to Lady Lovelace's
objection, which stated that the machine
can only do what we tell it to do. One could
say that a man can 'inject' an idea into
the machine, and that it will respond to
a certain extent and then drop into quiescence,
like a piano string struck by a hammer. Another
simile would be an atomic pile of less than
critical size: an injected idea is to correspond
to a neutron entering the pile from without.
Each such neutron will cause a certain disturbance
which eventually dies away. If, however,
the size of the pile is sufficiently increased,
the disturbance caused by such an incoming
neutron will very likely go on and on increasing
until the whole pile is destroyed. Is there
a corresponding phenomenon for minds, and
is there one for machines? There does seem
to be one for the human mind. The majority
of them seem to be 'sub-critical', i. e.
to correspond in this analogy to piles of
sub-critical size. An idea presented to such
a mind will on average give rise to less
than one idea in reply. A smallish proportion
are super-critical. An idea presented to
such a mind may give rise to a whole 'theory'
consisting of secondary, tertiary and more
remote ideas. Animals minds seem to be very
definitely sub-critical. Adhering to this
analogy we ask, 'Can a machine be made to
be super-critical?'
The 'skin of an onion' analogy is also helpful.
In considering the functions of the mind
or the brain we find certain operations which
we can explain in purely mechanical terms.
This we say does not correspond to the real
mind: it is a sort of skin which we must
strip off if we are to find the real mind.
But then in what remains we find a further
skin to be stripped off, and so on. {p. 455}
Proceeding in this way do we ever come to
the 'real' mind, or do we eventually come
to the skin which has nothing in it? In the
latter case the whole mind is mechanical.
(It would not be a discrete-state machine
however. We have discussed this.)
These last two paragraphs do not claim to
be convincing arguments. They should rather
be described as 'recitations tending to produce
belief'.
The only really satisfactory support that
can be given for the view expressed at the
beginning of § 6, will be that provided by
waiting for the end of the century and then
doing the experiment described. But what
can we say in the meantime? What steps should
be taken now if the experiment is to be successful?
As I have explained, the problem is mainly
one of programming. Advances in engineering
will have to be made too, but it seems unlikely
that these will not be adequate for the requirements.
Estimates of the storage capacity of the
brain vary from 1010 to 1015 binary digits.
I incline to the lower values and believe
that only a very small fraction is used for
the higher types of thinking. Most of it
is probably used for the retention of visual
impressions. I should be surprised if more
than l09 was required for satisfactory playing
of the imitation game, at any rate against
a blind man. (Note--The capacity of the Encyclopaedia
Britannica, 11th edition, is 2 x l09.) A
storage capacity of l07would be a very practicable
possibility even by present techniques. It
is probably not necessary to increase the
speed of operations of the machines at all.
Parts of modern machines which can be regarded
as analogues of nerve cells work about a
thousand times faster than the latter. This
should provide a 'margin of safety' which
could cover losses of speed arising in many
ways. Our problem then is to find out how
to programme these machines to play the game.
At my present rate of working I produce about
a thousand digits of programme a day, so
that about sixty workers, working steadily
through the fifty years might accomplish
the job, if nothing went into the waste-paper
basket. Some more expeditious method seems
desirable.
In the process of trying to imitate an adult
human mind we are bound to think a good deal
about the process which has brought it to
the state that it is in. We may notice three
components,
(a) The initial state of the mind, say at
birth,
(b) The education to which it has been subjected,
(c) Other, not to be described as education,
to which it has been subjected.
{p. 456} Instead of trying to produce a programme
to simulate the adult mind, why not rather
try to produce one which simulates the child's?
If this were then subjected to an appropriate
course of education one would obtain the
adult brain. Presumably the child-brain is
something like a note-book as one buys it
from the stationers. Rather little mechanism,
and lots of blank sheets. (Mechanism and
writing are from our point of view almost
synonymous.) Our hope is that there is so
little mechanism in the child-brain that
something like it can be easily programmed.
The amount of work in the education we can
assume, as a first approximation, to be much
the same as for the human child.
We have thus divided our problem into two
parts. The child-programme and the education
process. These two remain very closely connected.
We cannot expect to find a good child-machine
at the first attempt. One must experiment
with teaching one such machine and see how
well it learns. One can then try another
and see if it is better or worse. There is
an obvious connection between this process
and evolution, by the identifications
Structure of the child machine = Hereditary
material Changes of the child machine = Mutations
Natural selection = Judgment of the experimenter
One may hope, however, that this process
will be more expeditious than evolution.
The survival of the fittest is a slow method
for measuring advantages. The experimenter,
by the exercise of intelligence, should be
able to speed it up. Equally important is
the fact that he is not restricted to random
mutations. If he can trace a cause for some
weakness he can probably think of the kind
of mutation which will improve it.
It will not be possible to apply exactly
the same teaching process to the machine
as to a normal child. It will not, for instance,
be provided with legs, so that it could not
be asked to go out and fill the coal scuttle.
Possibly it might not have eyes. But however
well these deficiencies might be overcome
by clever engineering, one could not send
the creature to school with out the other
children making excessive fun of it. It must
be given some tuition. We need not be too
concerned about the legs, eyes, etc. The
example of Miss Helen Keller shows that education
can take place provided that communication
in both directions between teacher and pupil
can take place by some means or other.
{p. 457}We normally associate punishments
and rewards with the teaching process. Some
simple child-machines can be constructed
or programmed on this sort of principle.
The machine has to be so constructed that
events which shortly preceded the occurrence
of a punishment-signal are unlikely to be
repeated, whereas a reward-signal increased
the probability of repetition of the events
which led up to it. These definitions do
not presuppose any feelings on the part of
the machine. I have done some experiments
with one such child-machine, and succeeded
in teaching it a few things, but the teaching
method was too unorthodox for the experiment
to be considered really successful.
The use of punishments and rewards can at
best be a part of the teaching process. Roughly
speaking, if the teacher has no other means
of communicating to the pupil, the amount
of information which can reach him does not
exceed the total number of rewards and punishments
applied. By the time a child has learnt to
repeat 'Casabianca' he would probably feel
very sore indeed, if the text could only
be discovered by a 'Twenty Questions' technique,
every 'NO' taking the form of a blow. It
is necessary therefore to have some other
'unemotional' channels of communication.
If these are available it is possible to
teach a machine by punishments and rewards
to obey orders given in some language, e.
g. a symbolic language. These orders are
to be transmitted through the 'unemotional'
channels. The use of this language will diminish
greatly the number of punishments and rewards
required.
Opinions may vary as to the complexity which
is suitable in the child machine. One might
try to make it as simple as possible consistently
with the general principles. Alternatively
one might have a complete system of logical
inference 'built in '(3) In the latter case
the store would be largely occupied with
definitions and propositions. The propositions
would have various kinds of status, e. g.
well-established facts, conjectures, mathematically
proved theorems, statements given by an authority,
expressions having the logical form of proposition
but not belief-value. Certain propositions
may be described as 'imperatives'. The machine
should be so constructed that as soon as
an imperative is classed as 'well-established
' the appropriate action automatically takes
place. To illustrate this, suppose the teacher
says to the machine, 'Do your homework now'.
This may cause "Teacher says 'Do your
homework now' " to be included amongst
the well-established facts. Another such
fact might be, {p. 458} "Everything
that teacher says is true". Combining
these may eventually lead to the imperative,
'Do your homework now', being included amongst
the well-established facts, and this, by
the construction of the machine, will mean
that the homework actually gets started,
but the effect is very satisfactory. The
processes of inference used by the machine
need not be such as would satisfy the most
exacting logicians. There might for instance
be no hierarchy of types. But this need not
mean that type fallacies will occur any more
than we are bound to fall over unfenced cliffs.
Suitable imperatives (expressed within the
systems, not forming part of the rules of
the system) such as 'Do not use a class unless
it is a subclass of one which has been mentioned
by teacher' can have a similar effect to
'Do not go too near the edge'.
The imperatives that can be obeyed by a machine
that has no limbs are bound to be of a rather
intellectual character, as in the example
(doing homework) given above. Important amongst
such imperatives will be ones which regulate
the order in which the rules of the logical
system concerned are to be applied For at
each stage when one is using a logical system,
there is a very large number of alternative
steps, any of which one is permitted to apply,
so far as obedience to the rules of the logical
system is concerned. These choices make the
difference between a brilliant and a footling
reasoner, not the difference between a sound
and a fallacious one. Propositions leading
to imperatives of this kind might be "When
Socrates is mentioned, use the syllogism
in Barbara" or "If one method has
been proved to be quicker than another, do
not use the slower method". Some of
these may be 'given by authority', but others
may be produced by the machine itself, e.
g. by scientific induction.
The idea of a learning machine may appear
paradoxical to some readers. How can the
rules of operation of the machine change?
They should describe completely how the machine
will react whatever its history might be,
whatever changes it might undergo. The rules
are thus quite time-invariant. This is quite
true. The explanation of the paradox is that
the rules which get changed in the learning
process are of a rather less pretentious
kind, claiming only an ephemeral validity.
The reader may draw a parallel with the Constitution
of the United States.
An important feature of a learning machine
is that its teacher will often be very largely
ignorant of quite what is going on inside,
although he may still be able to some extent
to predict his pupil's behaviour. This should
apply most strongly to the {p. 459} later
education of a machine arising from a child-machine
of well-tried design (or programme). This
is in clear contrast with normal procedure
when using a machine to do computations:
one's object is then to have a clear mental
picture of the state of the machine at each
moment in the computation. This object can
only be achieved with a struggle. The view
that 'the machine can only do what we know
how to order it to do',(4) appears Strange
in face of this. Most of the programmes which
we can put into the machine will result in
its doing something that we cannot make sense
of at all, or which we regard as completely
random behaviour. Intelligent behaviour presumably
consists in a departure from the completely
disciplined behaviour involved in computation,
but a rather slight one, which does not give
rise to random behaviour, or to pointless
repetitive loops. Another important result
of preparing our machine for its part in
the imitation game by a process of teaching
and learning is that 'human fallibility'
is likely to be omitted in a rather natural
way, i. e. without special 'coaching'. (The
reader should reconcile this with the point
of view on pp. 24, 25.) Processes that are
learnt do not produce a hundred per cent.
certainty of result; if they did they could
not be unlearnt.
It is probably wise to include a random element
in a learning machine (see p. 438). A random
element is rather useful when we are searching
for a solution of some problem. Suppose for
instance we wanted to find a number between
50 and 200 which was equal to the square
of the sum of its digits, we might start
at 51 then try 52 and go on until we got
a number that worked. Alternatively we might
choose numbers at random until we got a good
one. This method has the advantage that it
is unnecessary to keep track of the values
that have been tried, but the disadvantage
that one may try the same one twice, but
this is not very important if there are several
solutions. The systematic method has the
disadvantage that there may be an enormous
block without any solutions in the region
which has to be investigated first. Now the
learning process may be regarded as a search
for a form of behaviour which will satisfy
the teacher (or some other criterion). Since
there is probably a very large number of
satisfactory solutions the random method
seems to be better than the systematic. It
should be noticed that it is used in the
analogous process of evolution. But there
the systematic method is not possible. How
could one keep track {p. 460} of the different
genetical combinations that had been tried,
so as to avoid trying them again?
We may hope that machines will eventually
compete with men in all purely intellectual
fields. But which are the best ones to start
with? Even this is a difficult decision.
Many people think that a very abstract activity,
like the playing of chess would be best.
It can also be maintained that it is best
to provide the machine with the best sense
organs that money can buy, and then teach
it to understand and speak English. This
process could follow the normal teaching
of a child. Things would be pointed out and
named, etc. Again I do not know what the
right answer is, but I think both approaches
should be tried.
We can only see a short distance ahead, but
we can see plenty there that needs to be
done.
Related further reading Decision processes
Computing machinery and intelligence
On computable numbers, with an application
to the Entscheidungsproblem the Turing Test
and intelligence
BIBLIOGRAPHY Samuel Butler, Erewhon, London,
1865. Chapters 28, 24, 25, The Book of the
Machines.
Alonzo Church, An Unsolvable Problem of Elementary
Number Theory American J. of Math., 58 (1936),
345-363.
K. Gödel, Über formal unentscheidbare Sätze
der Principia Mathematica und verwandter
Systeme, I, Monatshefte für Math. und Phys.,
(1931), 173-189.
D. R. Hartree, Calculating Instruments and
Machines, New York, 1949.
S. C. Kleene, General Recursive Functions
of Natural Numbers American J. of Math.,
57 (1935), 153-173 and 219-244.
G. Jefferson, The Mind of Mechanical Man,
Lister Oration for 1949 British Medical Journal,
vol. i (1949), 1105-1121.
Countess of Lovelace, Translator's notes
to an article on Babbage's Analytical Engine
Scientific Memoir(ed. by R. Taylor), vol.
3 (1842), 691-731.
Bertrand Russell, History of Western Philosophy,
London 1940.
A M. Turing, On Computable Numbers, with
an Application to the Entscheidungsproblem,
Proc. London Math. Soc. (2), 42 (1937), 230-265.
Victoria University of Manchester.
FOOT NOTES
1. Possibly this view is heretical. St. Thomas
Aquinas (Summa Theologica, quoted by Bertrand
Russell, 1, 480) states that God cannot make
a man to have no soul. But this may not be
a real restriction on His powers, but only
a result of the fact that men's souls are
immortal, and therefore indestructible.
advertising disclaimer
2. Author's names in italics refer to the
Bibliography.
3. Or rather 'programmed in' for our child-machine
will be programmed in a digital computer.
But the logical system will not have to be
learnt.
4. Compare Lady Lovelace's statement (p.
450), which does not contain the word 'only'.
The Turing test and intelligence gives a
detailed logical analysis of the relationship
between intelligence and Turing’s proposed
test of intelligence as outlined in Computing
machinery and intelligence (this document).
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